Why North Korea is a Rational Actor.

I recently raised a point with friends that I believed Kim Jong Un was acting rationally. This received the response you might expect, a few laughs and one individual saying, "A rational actor? Said no one ever!". Do not get me wrong, I have known to be a devil's advocate at times and pushing buttons in order to spark at debate but on this occasion, I was stating what I believed to have been fact. I should also point out that I am not defending Kim or his regime, nor am I setting out to bash the United States, despite the suggestions that this might be my intention.

I understand the response of my friends. How does someone rational kill their uncle using an anti-aircraft weapon? How does someone rational starve their own people to do death? How does someone rational continue to test military and nuclear devices knowing that this will likely bring further sanctions (or perhaps worse)?

My response to these questions, and my rationale behind making such a ‘ludicrous’ statement, is question simple - regime survival. Kim is absolutely terrified that this his regime will fall. He is using his weapons and nuclear programme to protect his position and his country. He has seen what has happened to regimes in locations such as Libya and Iraq who have scaled back their nuclear programmes; Qaddafi and Hussein died gruesome, horrible deaths. It is not irrational for Kim to think that he is likely to go the same way of these two despotic individuals.

In many ways the United States, most obviously under the current president, has walked into a trap. Many around the world see the sanctions regime as a proportional response to North Korea's nuclear programme but it is not so far left field to suggest that North Korea is developing its capabilities to defend itself. The US has played up to its role as the threatening enemy in Pyongyang's eyes, especially so when considering that the US has promised “fire and fury” will come North Korea's way. Moreover, the US has constructed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system or THAAD in South Korea. The US and its ally in Seoul have stated that this is a defensive measure. However, nations regularly, and understandably, see such defensive measures as an infringement on their own sovereignty. Think back to the Cuban Missile Crisis of the early 1960s. The Castro brothers saw having advanced weaponry on its island as a defence against another US invasion, the US saw it as a threat to its security; the situation on the Korean Peninsula does not differ greatly. North Korea sees having the most advanced weaponry known to mankind as a way to maximise its security and protect the regime. It should be noted at this juncture, that much of what the US-Japan-South Korea alliance is doing can also be considered rational.

Some have questioned why North Korea has not given up its militaristic ambitions in order to ease international sanctions. There are a number of reasons for this, which include the following:

• The sanctions regime, while hurting the general populous, does not significantly hurt Kim as an individual or the leadership. Unlike Putin in Russia, who has been personally hurt by the sanctions regime, Kim does not have significant investments abroad; North Korea is a hermit regime, closed off from the outside world. 

• Secondly, Kim knows that China will not let it fail (nor will Russia), so it does not have to make a deal on the terms of another country. If there is to be another global conflict, it will surely be between China and the US. If North Korea fails, it means that China would have US troops on its border or, at the very least, a staunch US ally as a neighbouring state. Moreover, if Kim's regime folds, China would have to deal with millions of refugees and who knows what would happen to Pyongyang's nuclear technology. The US and President Trump like to claim that China has leverage over North Korea, when in reality, it is the other way around.

• Perhaps the most recent reason why North Korea has not done what it is told is Iran. Iran was hit by devastating sanctions in response to its nuclear programme. After years of talks, a deal was signed between Tehran and the members of UN Security Council (US, Russia, China, UK, and France), the EU, and Germany. This deal demanded that Iran limit its nuclear ambitions in return for sanctions relief. Despite Iran holding up its end of the bargain (as certified by President Trump of all people), the US has threatened to rip up the Iran nuclear deal. North Korea will rightly be thinking that the US cannot be trusted. Why would Pyongyang act irrationally in making a deal with the United States, if Washington might renege on it only a few years later? This move by the Trump administration sets a bad precedent for future multilateral negotiations.

So what is to be done? I am sure that an individual remarking that President Trump has no idea what he is doing (or in the words of his Secretary of State, that he is a moron) is not an especially original observation, but this is the hand the world has been dealt. Unfortunately, what the current administration does not understand is that foreign policy requires nuance and forward thinking. The fact that Trump's aforementioned Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been emasculated in his attempts to seek a diplomatic resolution to this issue, is obviously unhelpful. Moreover, a number of lower level positions at State (and other agencies and departments) are yet to be filled. It is these individuals who do the graft on issues such as North Korea, can form the lower level diplomatic relationships (which are vital), and can become topic experts; we cannot expect a Secretary of State or one of his deputies to be know everything about everywhere.

The world needs the US leadership to be the adult at the table and not act with petulance. There is still hope that this will occur in the life of this presidency but I am not sure we can hold out much hope. The global community needs the US to swallow its pride and do what needs to be done. Do what was done in the past to reduce North Korea's militaristic ambitions and do not come across as a threat to the regime. The US seriously needs to consider de-escalation; limit military drills in the region, consider deconstructing THAAD, and bribe North Korea. Yes! Bribe! This worked under the leadership of Kim's father. Pay them off, give them the food aid they desire, reduce sanctions, and ensure inspectors are sent in. If this does not limit Pyongyang's nuclear and military activities, then it may be time to think about think about other measures.

The world and the US need to consider ‘is North Korea really a threat?’ Not to the future of the US as we know it, no. The United States needs to limit distractions such as North Korea and focus on sorting out its own house if it wants to maintain its position on top in the 21st century, and provide the leadership the world needs.